The Summer of Deja Vu

Right now, this country reminds me of a battered partner who keeps going back to an his abuser and wonders why he gets beaten. Being totally unprepared for the first wave was a tragic mistake but understandable. Promoiting Eat Out to Help Out when there were clear signs of a second wave was unforgivable. When we were devasted by a third wave caused by the Kent variant, we finally had the guts to cancel Christmas and impose a full lockdown while we got to work vaccinating the nation.

And tough as it was, it seems to have paid off. With about half the country vaccinated we’ve started to take the breaks off a little bit. Infection levels are almost down to what they were last summer. Kids are back at school. On sunny days restaruants and cafes are full of outdoor diners. Volunteers are being recruited by scientists to attend conventions and music gigs to test whether they can be held safely.

But instead of giving us confidence in the first baby steps to freedom, the Prime Minister announced to day that from June 21st it may no longer be necessary for people to social distance, even by one metre. .Does that mean we’ll ditch the masks and get all hot and sweaty together? There’s just one small problem here. What if it all goes tits up? You know, like it did in March 2020 and then again in October and January?

In February of this year, scientists predicted that at there would be at least 30,000 Covid related deaths between then and June 2022. That’s the equivalent of a very bad flu season but then again, the death toll could be higher than 100,000.

Meanwhile, Europe struggles to contain recent surges as it fails to vaccinate even the most vulnerable. India sees close to half a million new infections a day and doesn’t even have enough oxygen to treat the critically ill. Once we open up, it will be largely up to vaccines to stop the spread. But even if you’ve been vaccinated, there’s still a chance catch and spread Cornavirus. And that’s even if everyone was willing to be vaccinated, which they aren’t. And then there are the South African, Brazilian, Indian and likely other strains of the virus that can get through some of the vaccines’ defences. If they’re contained now it’s because we’ve locked down or social distancing for the past four months. As the country opens up they can spread and if they do, you can bet the government will be too scared to reimpose restrictions. “It’s only a little bit higher” they’ll say. “It’s only affecting the young people””Yes they’re a lot of infections but the death rate is still in the low hundreds. It’s just that more people are being tested” And then the hospitals start filling up and the corpses mount again, and everyone asks “how did this happen? We sure never saw it coming”.

Something tells me the new variants will be out to party this summer.